When outgoing Mossad director Meir Dagan told reporters earlier this month that Iran was at least four years away from developing nuclear weapons, the focus in Israel quickly turned to the question: what had caused the delay? Now, some two weeks later, some Israelis are asking a more cynical question: why did Dagan go public with the upbeat assessment in the first place? For years, Israel has been issuing dire warnings about Iran, hoping to prod the international community into action. Just 13 months ago, Defense Minister Ehud Barak estimated Iran would be in a position to build its first bomb by 2011. Sanctions and sabotage have clearly slowed down the Iranian program. But why, just as Tehran is starting to feel the pressure, would the Israeli intelligence chief risk lulling the international community by revealing the good news?
Dagan might simply have wanted to ensure that he received credit for the success: on his watch, Iranian nukes were dealt a setback. But the 65-year-old spymaster is not known as a grandstander. During his eight years as Mossad chief, he studiously avoided media attention.
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